A Survivor's Guide: 5 Essential Investment Considerations for the Trumpian Storm.

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The Macquarie assessment of USD 200 per barrel oil if the war persists to June underlines the uncertainty that investment markets are most vulnerable to. Yes, we assume the war will end — but it really is a coin toss on when. In the interim, it is a speculator's dream. Fifteen minutes before Trump's post announcing a delay in bombing, a massive short position — a bet on a price drop — valued at between USD 500 million and USD 780 million was placed. Analysts describe this as a textbook "jawboning" move by Trump, and the BBC and the Financial Times both took the view that insider trading was the most likely explanation. Denied by the White House, Democratic lawmakers have nonetheless called for an investigation. The likely casualty here is the further erosion of trust in US markets under current management. All of this must be absorbed into portfolio management during highly uncertain times.

Recession? It is not just oil and energy affected by the Strait's closure. Fertilisers, sulphur, aluminium, helium and food stocks will all be severely disrupted. The Philippines has already declared a state of emergency — others will likely follow. Against this backdrop, we offer 5 investment considerations for our readers.

1. The positive opportunity: harvesting volatility

A USD 200 per barrel oil price will with certainty feed into the broader economy and weigh negatively on stock markets. Within our five considerations, we largely examine how to defend capital by taking a defensive view of assets to mitigate downside volatility. However, let us not forget Baron Rothschild's famous phrase: "Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own." For regular premium investors, the blood is the red tape around the Strait of Hormuz. This works well for anybody investing regularly in market indices such as the S&P 500.

Great recent examples include:

• 2008 Financial Crisis: The S&P 500 bottomed in March 2009; those who kept investing saw a 250% return over the following decade.

• 2020 COVID: Markets fell 30% in a month, and the S&P hit all-time highs within six months.

  
  

2026 consideration: do not try to time the absolute bottom. Set a "crisis rhythm" — investing a fixed amount every month so that you are automatically buying the Trumpian Discount.

2. Building the fortress: the flight to quality and hard assets

If our first point is about buying the blood, our second is about finding a safe room. In defending capital, we must remain wary of downside volatility. If we invest USD 100,000 in Widgets Limited and the price falls 50%, we require a market recovery of 100% simply to return to our original capital value. We need a safe house.

Ultimately, this means moving away from paper promises — shares in a technology company, an airline, or similar — and into hard value.

The likely considerations here include the obvious: gold. See our article of October 2025 — we can now say, with some satisfaction, "we told you so." The great thing about gold is that it requires neither a government trade policy nor a functioning shipping lane.

With the Macquarie assessment still ringing in our ears, we must also consider an energy play. High-quality energy infrastructure provides a toll-booth income that can survive broader market downturns.

Ultimately, the key decision is how much weight to apply to any given investment. Investors might consider keeping at least 20% in a crisis bucket — ultra short-term Treasury Bills and physical gold may fit well here, as may cash, for any short-term opportunity.

3. The energy arbitrage: profiting from the choke point

The Strait of Hormuz is now a financial lever. The Macquarie warning of USD 200 per barrel creates a massive transfer of value away from the energy consumer and towards the energy producer.

The suggested action is hinted at above: US midstream pipelines and North American exploration and production. These assets are insulated from a Hormuz blockage and will become more valuable as global supply diminishes. Owning the solution to the shortage could prove highly rewarding.

4. The neutrality premium

The concept here is that the Trumpian Storm may become a drain on value for those tied to or associated with US policy. It is certainly a risk worth taking seriously. Finding an economic Switzerland is a worthy goal.

This should lend optimism to non-aligned assets. India and China stand to benefit from this thinking. Indeed, with European positioning leaning decidedly anti-Trumpian from a foreign policy perspective, those markets may offer decent fixed-interest hard currency opportunities, as well as high-quality equity options.

5. Stay balanced and diversified as uncertainty reigns

The work of the Macquarie analysts led by Vikas Dwivedi must be seen in the context of a 40% probability assigned to their worst-case scenario — that the war continues until the end of June.

They placed a 60% chance on hostilities ending by the close of March. At the time of writing, that prediction had approximately twelve hours remaining.

A good moment, then, to recall the COVID recovery in stock markets. If markets do move sharply downwards, when the war ends, AI will recover its allure — as will pharmaceuticals, food and plentiful non-discretionary spending sectors. Stock markets will recover. Replenish some of the bathwater in the interim, by all means, but do not throw the baby out with it. Stay balanced. Stay diversified.

Concluding Thoughts on Time

The central question remains: how long will this conflict last? Historical parallels offer little comfort. Unlike Russia and Ukraine’s territorial disputes, where combatants fight over where lines on a map are drawn, this conflict is fundamentally about governance and influence within existing borders. In principle, the kind of thing that reasonable negotiators can resolve. The challenge, of course, is finding those negotiators.

What history does tell us is that prolonged economic disruption has a way of concentrating minds. Global markets in freefall, energy prices spiralling and consumer confidence collapsing have a habit of producing the political will that diplomacy alone cannot. James Carville's enduring phrase, coined in the corridors of the Clinton campaign, has never felt more relevant: "It's the economy, stupid." When the pain becomes sufficiently widespread, the path to resolution tends to reveal itself. The question, as always, is how much pain the world is willing to absorb before it does.

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