In this series we usually take an article or a book and draw out a single thought worth exploring. This month, we go further — distilling that thought down to a single sentence. It comes from a Macquarie Group warning that oil prices could reach USD 200 per barrel if the Middle East conflict causes a sustained second-quarter closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

In January 2026 we published "Everything Trump Touches Dies: The Final Reckoning," prompted by Rick Wilson's piece in the New York Times. At that time, Trump had moved aggressively on Venezuela and was making territorial noises about Greenland. Our analysis then was focused on the domestic US economic fallout: the weakening of Dollar hegemony, diminishing appetite for US bonds, and dangerously inflated stock markets propped up by a handful of technology companies.

What did we not see? We did not see the global contagion of the Trump effect. From an investment perspective, we now sit on the edge of global recession (when people lose jobs), and potentially depression (when you lose your job). So we turn to action: 5 considerations for navigating a period of global financial correction.